Free tool
Plug in spend, expected engaged audience, conversion rate, and AOV. Get realistic ROAS, break-even, and upside scenarios. Optimistic-bias math is the #1 reason creator campaigns disappoint.
Engaged audience
2,400
Expected orders
36
Expected revenue
$2,340
ROAS
1.56×
Verdict
Break-even or modest profit on first order. Real upside comes from second purchase + attribution lift + content reuse.
Break-even: needs 24 orders (1.00% of engaged audience).
Want this run for every creator on your shortlist — automatically scored with brand-fit, audience-match, and fraud signals? That's SpendVet.
revenue = engaged_audience × conversion_rate × AOV
ROAS = revenue / spend
The mistake brands make: they multiply total followers by an optimistic conversion rate. A 100K-follower creator does NOT put your product in front of 100K interested viewers — they reach roughly 2-3K engaged viewers per post (the rest scroll past). Modeling against total followers inflates your projected ROAS by ~30-50× and sets you up to call a successful campaign a failure.
Better mental model:a healthy single-post campaign with a micro-tier creator (10K–100K followers, 3% ER, $1,500 fee) needs ~30-90 sales at $50 AOV to break even. If that sounds steep, you're right — most single-post creator campaigns don't break even on first-order ROAS alone. They earn back through subsequent purchase, attribution lift, and reusable content rights.
Direct-response creator campaigns typically convert 0.5–3% of engaged audience on a discount code; lower for full-price product, higher for affiliate-style creators with a built-in shopping audience. Brand-awareness campaigns don't belong in this calculator — there's no purchase to count.
A creator with 100K followers and 2% ER reaches roughly 2K engaged viewers per post. The other 98K saw the post in feed but didn't engage — they're not buying from this campaign. Modeling against total followers triples your projected ROI and sets you up to be disappointed.
For direct-response, yes — first-order ROAS is the cleanest signal. For brand campaigns, lift studies + assisted conversions + brand search volume changes are better. ROAS will under-count the actual value of brand campaigns by 40-80%.